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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

34-18-15  |  Road

5
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

42-19-6  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Ilya Solovyov
GOALTENDER

Ilya Solovyov

#7 | Defense
@
Sean Walker
GOALTENDER

Sean Walker

#26 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ilya Solovyov None-None -- -- --
Sean Walker None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA --
-- Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
📊
HURRICANES
0%
PENGUINS --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Carolina)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 HurricanesCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

30.9%

Hurricanes Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

PIT By 1 goal

12.1%

PIT By 2-3 goals

9.3%

CAR By 1 goal

19.7%

CAR By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
6
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
2
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Penguins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hurricanes (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Penguins (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 CAR @ PIT 5 - 1
Mar 18, 2026 PIT @ CAR 5 - 6
Mar 10, 2026 PIT @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 30, 2025 CAR @ PIT 1 - 5
Jan 5, 2025 PIT @ CAR 3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +59.8% more
Carolina: 6.0 vs Pittsburgh: 3.8
Hits (L5) +32.8% more
Carolina: 24.2 vs Pittsburgh: 18.2
Power Play % (L5) +18.0%
Carolina: 20.5% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Carolina: 53.1% vs Pittsburgh: 46.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 5
CAR Score 6.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
64%MONEY36%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
PIT
CAR
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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