Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pistons @ Wizards DET @ WSH

DETROIT

PISTONSDET

48-19  |  Road

130
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-51  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
PISTONS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PistonsDET (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pistons Cover

8.1%

Wizards Cover

91.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

DET By 1-7 points

16.9%

DET By 8-14 points

26.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

5.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
129
DETROIT
115
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
104
DETROIT
108
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pistons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+19.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 DET @ WSH 117 - 95
Mar 17, 2026 DET @ WSH 130 - 117
Feb 5, 2026 WSH @ DET 126 - 117
Nov 10, 2025 WSH @ DET 135 - 137
Oct 16, 2025 WSH @ DET 98 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.2% more
Detroit: 5.9 vs Washington: 4.1
Steals (L5) +21.2% more
Detroit: 9.0 vs Washington: 7.1
Assists (L5) +14.4% more
Detroit: 29.5 vs Washington: 25.3
Rebounding (L5) +8.8% more
Detroit: 42.9 vs Washington: 39.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 129.0 130
WSH Score 115.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 37.9 43.0 / 41.0
Assists 25.3 / 29.5 20.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.1 / 5.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 50.3 49.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 76.5 79.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 42.9 35.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 18.1 / 14.5 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
67-29-0 (69.8%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
50-46-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6% Total +/-: -0.8
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
DET
WSH
DET
ML
70% 112-49
55% 64-53
47% 39-44
49% 47-49
ATS
69% 111-49-1
53% 60-54-3
47% 39-44
49% 47-49
TTL
74% 119-41-1
60% 70-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 96-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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