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MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

20-12  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 10:00 PM ET
Lawlor Events Center
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

WOLF PACKNEV

22-12  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
0%
📊
WOLF PACK
100%
RACERS --
WOLF PACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RacersMUR (-3.5) 0 Wolf PackNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Racers Cover

30.9%

Wolf Pack Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NEV +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

MUR By 1-7 points

27.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

23.0%

NEV By 1-7 points

18.6%

NEV By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
MURRAY STATE
71
NEVADA
Simulated Score
68
MURRAY STATE
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolf Pack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolf Pack (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Wolf Pack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 MUR @ NEV 75 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +26.0% more
Murray State: 4.0 vs Nevada: 3.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Murray State: 32.9% vs Nevada: 30.4%
Turnovers (L5) +39.9% more
Nevada: 12.5 vs Murray State: 8.9
Steals (L5) +17.9% more
Nevada: 7.5 vs Murray State: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 76.0 75
NEV Score 71.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 32.9 33.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.9 / 13.0 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.0 / 4.0 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 40.2 51.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 72.0 89.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 32.3 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.4 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 8.9 5.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
NEV Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
NEV Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
MUR
NEV
MUR
ML
62% 23-14
58% 19-14
73% 27-10
61% 20-13
ATS
73% 27-10
52% 17-16
73% 27-10
61% 20-13
TTL
49% 18-19
70% 23-10
100% 37-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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