Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Lobos SHSU @ UNM

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

22-11  |  Road

83
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 9:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

23-10  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
LOBOS
100%
BEARKATS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

95.5%

Lobos Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SHSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

UNM By 1-7 points

3.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
SAM HOUSTON
64
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
72
SAM HOUSTON
78
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (-11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 SHSU @ UNM 83 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
Sam Houston: 11.3 vs New Mexico: 10.3
Blocks (L5) +130.0% more
New Mexico: 2.3 vs Sam Houston: 1.0
Assists (L5) +20.7% more
New Mexico: 16.0 vs Sam Houston: 13.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
New Mexico: 35.8% vs Sam Houston: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 81.0 83
UNM Score 64.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 33.6 38.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.0 / 13.3 21.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.3 / 1.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 42.8 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 65.6 80.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 39.9 39.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.4 11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 11.3 5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
UNM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SHSU
UNM
SHSU
ML
57% 21-16
55% 18-15
74% 25-9
74% 23-8
ATS
57% 21-16
64% 21-12
74% 25-9
74% 23-8
TTL
41% 15-22
48% 16-17
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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