Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Braves DAY @ BRAD

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

23-11  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Carver Arena
View Odds Details →

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

21-12  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
BRAVES
0%
FLYERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Bradley)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 BravesBRAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

38.2%

Braves Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BRAD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

DAY By 1-7 points

21.6%

DAY By 8-14 points

10.7%

BRAD By 1-7 points

27.2%

BRAD By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
DAYTON
73
BRADLEY
Simulated Score
70
DAYTON
75
BRADLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Braves (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 DAY @ BRAD 80 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +48.4% more
Bradley: 8.6 vs Dayton: 5.8
Assists (L5) +11.2% more
Bradley: 15.9 vs Dayton: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
Bradley: 75.7% vs Dayton: 68.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Bradley: 44.8% vs Dayton: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 70.0 80
BRAD Score 73.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 34.3 45.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.9 / 14.3 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.3 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.8 / 41.2 45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 68.6 71.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 35.1 31.0 / 25.0
Steals 8.6 / 5.8 0.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.0 10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BRAD
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BRAD
DAY
BRAD
DAY
ML
65% 22-12
65% 24-13
68% 23-11
64% 23-13
ATS
59% 20-14
68% 25-12
68% 23-11
64% 23-13
TTL
68% 23-11
57% 21-16
100% 34-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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