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KENT STATE

GOLDEN FLASHESKENT

24-9  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 8:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

20-12  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN FLASHES
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
GOLDEN FLASHES --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
KENT STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Kent State)
Golden FlashesKENT (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Flashes Cover

96.4%

Redbirds Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around KENT -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENT)

KENT By 1-7 points

10.7%

KENT By 8-14 points

21.6%

ILST By 1-7 points

2.7%

ILST By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
88
KENT STATE
70
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
KENT STATE
72
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Flashes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Flashes (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 KENT @ ILST 58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.1% more
Kent State: 7.5 vs Illinois State: 5.2
Rebounding (L5) +22.5% more
Kent State: 38.6 vs Illinois State: 29.9
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
Kent State: 12.4 vs Illinois State: 11.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Kent State: 34.4% vs Illinois State: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENT Score 88.0 58
ILST Score 70.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 34.4 37.0 / 25.0
Assists 11.3 / 12.4 21.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.3 / 1.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 40.6 42.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 74.3 67.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 38.6 43.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.2 / 7.5 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.5 4.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENT Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENT
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -2.4
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
KENT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +4.6
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
KENT
ILST
KENT
ML
42% 15-21
53% 18-16
71% 24-10
65% 22-12
ATS
58% 21-15
65% 22-12
71% 24-10
65% 22-12
TTL
58% 21-15
44% 15-19
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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