Home / NBA Projections NBA / 76ers @ Nuggets PHI @ DEN

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

37-31  |  Road

96
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

41-27  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
76ERS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
76ersPHI (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

76ers Cover

38.2%

Nuggets Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

PHI By 1-7 points

21.6%

PHI By 8-14 points

10.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
121
PHILADELPHIA
124
DENVER
Simulated Score
114
PHILADELPHIA
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+16) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o236.5 Loss
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 PHI @ DEN 96 - 124
Jan 5, 2026 DEN @ PHI 125 - 124
Jan 31, 2025 DEN @ PHI 137 - 134
Jan 21, 2025 PHI @ DEN 109 - 144
Jan 27, 2024 PHI @ DEN 105 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +47.8% more
Denver: 30.6 vs Philadelphia: 20.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.6%
Denver: 38.7% vs Philadelphia: 25.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Denver: 48.7% vs Philadelphia: 46.6%
Blocks (L5) +37.3% more
Philadelphia: 6.1 vs Denver: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 121.0 96
DEN Score 124.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 25.1 48.0 / 22.0
Assists 30.6 / 20.7 35.0 / 30.0
Blocks 3.9 / 6.1 2.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 46.6 50.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 81.9 / 82.1 71.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 43.6 / 44.6 53.0 / 42.0
Steals 9.2 / 11.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 14.4 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
PHI
DEN
PHI
ML
54% 57-48
63% 69-40
55% 47-39
48% 45-48
ATS
63% 65-38-2
65% 71-38
55% 47-39
48% 45-48
TTL
54% 56-48-1
55% 60-49
100% 86-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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