Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Magic OKC @ ORL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

53-15  |  Road

113
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

38-29  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
MAGIC
0%
THUNDER --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Orlando)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

46.0%

Magic Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)

OKC By 1-7 points

24.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

13.7%

ORL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ORL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
121
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
110
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Magic Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Magic (+10) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.0 Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim u224.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 OKC @ ORL 113 - 108
Feb 3, 2026 ORL @ OKC 92 - 128
Dec 19, 2024 OKC @ ORL 105 - 99
Nov 4, 2024 ORL @ OKC 86 - 102
Feb 13, 2024 OKC @ ORL 127 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.3% more
Orlando: 13.4 vs Oklahoma City: 9.4
Rebounding (L5) +9.1% more
Orlando: 45.6 vs Oklahoma City: 41.8
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Orlando: 46.8% vs Oklahoma City: 45.2%
Blocks (L5) +35.5% more
Oklahoma City: 5.0 vs Orlando: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 120.0 113
ORL Score 121.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 34.1 34.0 / 31.0
Assists 25.5 / 25.2 21.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.2 40.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.4 / 83.4 85.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 45.6 / 41.8 41.0 / 53.0
Steals 8.5 / 9.9 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 9.4 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
OKC
ORL
OKC
ML
61% 65-42
70% 80-34
56% 51-40
48% 46-49
ATS
64% 68-38-1
73% 83-30-1
56% 51-40
48% 46-49
TTL
57% 61-46
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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