MIAMI
HEATMIA
38-30 | Road
106
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
34-34 | Home
136
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
HORNETS
100%
HEAT
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
26.8%
MIA By 8-14 points
24.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
16.9%
CHA By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
118
MIAMI
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Miami
114
MIAMI
Charlotte
108
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.4% more
Miami: 10.3
vs
Charlotte: 7.7
Assists (L5)
+15.5% more
Miami: 27.5
vs
Charlotte: 23.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.5%
Miami: 46.3%
vs
Charlotte: 41.8%
Blocks (L5)
+31.6% more
Charlotte: 5.9
vs
Miami: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
118.0
106
CHA Score
112.0
136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 34.0
40.0 / 19.0
Assists
23.2 / 27.5
32.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.8 / 46.3
53.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
83.7 / 82.4
81.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
43.3 / 43.5
48.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.7 / 10.3
11.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 12.2
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
61%
60-39
48%
46-50
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
ATS
60%
59-40
51%
49-47
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
57-39
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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