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UNLV

REBELSUNLV

17-16  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 11:00 PM ET
Bren Events Center
View Odds Details →

UC IRVINE

ANTEATERSUCI

23-11  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
ANTEATERS
0%
REBELS --
ANTEATERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC Irvine)
RebelsUNLV (-3.5) 0 AnteatersUCI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

46.0%

Anteaters Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)

UNLV By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNLV By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCI By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCI By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
77
UNLV
78
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
70
UNLV
75
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Anteaters Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Anteaters Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Anteaters (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Anteaters (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 UNLV @ UCI 75 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.6% more
UC Irvine: 8.0 vs UNLV: 5.4
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
UC Irvine: 41.3 vs UNLV: 34.5
Free Throw % (L5) +14.6%
UC Irvine: 78.0% vs UNLV: 63.4%
Assists (L5) +8.8% more
UC Irvine: 14.5 vs UNLV: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 77.0 75
UCI Score 78.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 38.7 23.0 / 46.0
Assists 14.5 / 13.3 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.4 / 6.5 3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 46.0 40.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 63.4 76.0 / 46.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 34.5 37.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.4 15.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.9 / 13.4 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
UCI Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
UCI
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
UNLV
UCI
UNLV
ML
57% 20-15
50% 17-17
53% 18-16
59% 20-14
ATS
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
53% 18-16
59% 20-14
TTL
57% 20-15
62% 21-13
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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