STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
28-5 | Road
84
TULSA
GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA
26-7 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
GOLDEN HURRICANE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Tulsa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)
SFA By 1-7 points
6.8%
SFA By 8-14 points
1.7%
TLSA By 1-7 points
18.6%
TLSA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
65
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Tulsa
78
TULSA
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
72
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Tulsa
78
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
SFA @ TLSA
84 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+38.5% more
Tulsa: 15.6
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 11.3
Rebounding (L5)
+25.5% more
Tulsa: 37.8
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 30.1
Turnovers (L5)
+19.9% more
Tulsa: 10.7
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Tulsa: 37.7%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
65.0
84
TLSA Score
78.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 31.7
27.0 / 31.0
Assists
15.6 / 11.3
12.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.5
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 42.4
36.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 71.3
78.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 30.1
50.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.2
12.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 8.9
14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
TLSA
30-8-0
(79.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
TLSA
20-15-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
SFA
TLSA
SFA
ML
66%
25-13
59%
17-12
64%
23-13
79%
23-6
ATS
74%
28-10
59%
17-12
64%
23-13
79%
23-6
TTL
58%
22-16
62%
18-11
100%
36-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
