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UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

26-6  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 7:00 PM ET
John J. Lee Amphitheater
View Odds Details →

YALE

BULLDOGSYALE

24-6  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
SEAHAWKS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
YALE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Yale)
SeahawksUNCW (-3.5) 0 BulldogsYALE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

42.1%

Bulldogs Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around YALE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (YALE)

UNCW By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNCW By 8-14 points

12.2%

YALE By 1-7 points

26.8%

YALE By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UNC WILMINGTON
75
YALE
Simulated Score
72
UNC WILMINGTON
75
YALE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 UNCW @ YALE 68 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +109.8% more
Yale: 4.1 vs UNC Wilmington: 1.9
Assists (L5) +28.8% more
Yale: 18.6 vs UNC Wilmington: 14.5
Steals (L5) +20.7% more
Yale: 6.8 vs UNC Wilmington: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Yale: 70.2% vs UNC Wilmington: 61.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score 73.0 68
YALE Score 75.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 29.9 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 18.6 / 14.5 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.1 / 1.9 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 43.4 37.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 61.8 41.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 37.0 / 40.9 49.0 / 48.0
Steals 6.8 / 5.7 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 11.3 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
YALE
24-7-0 (77.4%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW Advantage
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
YALE
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YALE
UNCW
YALE
UNCW
ML
48% 15-16
64% 21-12
58% 18-13
52% 17-16
ATS
65% 20-11
58% 19-14
58% 18-13
52% 17-16
TTL
61% 19-12
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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