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TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

40-21-4  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Climate Pledge Arena
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

KRAKENSEA

31-26-9  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
@
Philipp Grubauer
GOALTENDER

Philipp Grubauer

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.03 0.889 --
Philipp Grubauer None-None 5.05 0.800 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.03 Ldr GAA 5.05
0.889 Ldr Save % 0.800
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
📊
KRAKEN
100%
LIGHTNING --
KRAKEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LightningTB (-3.5) 0 KrakenSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lightning Cover

30.9%

Kraken Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

SEA By 1 goal

12.1%

SEA By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TAMPA BAY
2
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
3
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kraken (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Lightning (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 26, 2026 SEA @ TB 4 - 3
Mar 17, 2026 TB @ SEA 6 - 2
Feb 23, 2025 SEA @ TB 1 - 4
Dec 14, 2024 TB @ SEA 5 - 1
Dec 9, 2023 TB @ SEA 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.0% more
Tampa Bay: 26.6 vs Seattle: 19.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.9% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Seattle: 25.0
Faceoff % (L5) +6.8%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Seattle: 43.0%
Power Play % (L5) +6.6%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Seattle: 24.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.0 6
SEA Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
37%MONEY63%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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