Home / NHL Projections NHL / Sabres @ Golden Knights BUF @ VGK

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

41-20-6  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 10:00 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

VEGAS

GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK

31-22-14  |  Home

0
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Adin Hill
GOALTENDER

Adin Hill

#33 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 0.00 1.000 1
Adin Hill None-None 1.01 0.958 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
0.00 Ldr GAA 1.01
1.000 Ldr Save % 0.958
1 Ldr SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
0%
📊
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
100%
SABRES --
GOLDEN KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Buffalo)
SabresBUF (-3.5) 0 Golden KnightsVGK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

84.1%

Golden Knights Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

17.5%

BUF By 2-3 goals

37.2%

VGK By 1 goal

6.6%

VGK By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BUFFALO
1
VEGAS
Simulated Score
4
BUFFALO
2
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Sabres (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 BUF @ VGK 2 - 0
Mar 3, 2026 VGK @ BUF 2 - 3
Mar 15, 2025 VGK @ BUF 3 - 4
Jan 4, 2025 BUF @ VGK 1 - 3
Mar 2, 2024 VGK @ BUF 2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +38.0% more
Buffalo: 5.3 vs Vegas: 3.3
Power Play % (L5) +3.7%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Vegas: 22.6%
Blocked Shots (L5) +19.2% more
Vegas: 14.5 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Faceoff % (L5) +5.2%
Vegas: 53.3% vs Buffalo: 48.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 3.0 2
VGK Score 1.0 0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
46%MONEY54%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
BUF
VGK
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Golden Knights Edge Canucks 3-2 as Gatcomb Strikes Late
yahoo 3 days, 18 hours ago
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
theathleticuk 4 days, 12 hours ago
Matthew Knies Ignites Blue Jackets Debut with Record-Setting Per…
yahoo 6 days, 12 hours ago
Buffalo Bills Face Backlash Over Water Bottle Policy at Highmark…
oleantimesherald 1 week ago
Aidan O'Connell's Trade Value Soars in Wake of JJ McCarthy Deal
headtopics 1 week, 1 day ago