Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Pelicans DAL @ NO

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

23-45  |  Road

111
FINAL
Mon, Mar 16 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

22-46  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
PELICANS
100%
MAVERICKS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
259.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

DAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

NO By 1-7 points

24.3%

NO By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
130
DALLAS
129
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
110
DALLAS
115
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o241.0 Loss
Proj Total: 259.0
D
Sim u241.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.0% more
Dallas: 28.7 vs New Orleans: 23.2
Turnovers (L5) +14.2% more
Dallas: 15.9 vs New Orleans: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Dallas: 81.9% vs New Orleans: 76.4%
Blocks (L5) +20.5% more
New Orleans: 5.8 vs Dallas: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 130.0 111
NO Score 129.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.9 / 37.5 31.0 / 36.0
Assists 23.2 / 28.7 31.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.8 / 4.8 12.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 47.6 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.4 / 81.9 65.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 46.8 / 45.6 57.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.6 / 8.0 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 15.9 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DAL
NO
DAL
ML
62% 98-61
62% 63-39
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
ATS
68% 107-51-1
67% 68-34
58% 48-35
54% 44-37
TTL
75% 119-40
59% 60-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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