Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Retrievers @ Bison UMBC @ HOW

UMBC

RETRIEVERSUMBC

24-8  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 6:40 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

HOWARD

BISONHOW

23-10  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
0%
📊
BISON
100%
RETRIEVERS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (UMBC)
RetrieversUMBC (-3.5) 0 BisonHOW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Retrievers Cover

65.5%

Bison Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UMBC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)

UMBC By 1-7 points

27.4%

UMBC By 8-14 points

21.6%

HOW By 1-7 points

20.1%

HOW By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
83
UMBC
79
HOWARD
Simulated Score
72
UMBC
78
HOWARD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Retrievers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Retrievers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 UMBC @ HOW 83 - 86
Nov 25, 2024 HOW @ UMBC 77 - 95
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
UMBC: 40.0% vs Howard: 33.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
UMBC: 81.4% vs Howard: 75.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
UMBC: 48.1% vs Howard: 45.2%
Blocks (L5) +60.2% more
Howard: 4.2 vs UMBC: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score 83.0 83
HOW Score 79.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 40.0 48.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.3 / 10.4 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.2 / 2.6 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 48.1 48.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 81.4 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 35.4 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 8.7 / 5.9 3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 8.2 8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
HOW
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +6.0
HOW Advantage
22-8-1 (73.3%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -0.5
HOW
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOW
UMBC
HOW
UMBC
ML
59% 20-14
58% 18-13
71% 22-9
55% 17-14
ATS
59% 20-14
68% 21-10
71% 22-9
55% 17-14
TTL
62% 21-13
39% 12-19
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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