Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Rockets LAL @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

42-25  |  Road

100
FINAL
Mon, Mar 16 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

41-25  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
LAKERS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
206.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Houston)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

3.6%

Rockets Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LAL By 1-7 points

2.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

HOU By 1-7 points

10.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
94
LOS ANGELES
112
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
108
LOS ANGELES
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 206.0
D
Sim u223.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 LAL @ HOU 98 - 78
Apr 29, 2026 HOU @ LAL 99 - 93
Apr 26, 2026 LAL @ HOU 96 - 115
Apr 24, 2026 LAL @ HOU 112 - 108
Apr 21, 2026 HOU @ LAL 94 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.3% more
Houston: 6.3 vs Los Angeles: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Houston: 15.1 vs Los Angeles: 12.9
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
Houston: 47.9 vs Los Angeles: 43.5
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Los Angeles: 29.3 vs Houston: 24.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 94.0 100
HOU Score 112.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.7 / 37.3 19.0 / 24.0
Assists 24.3 / 29.3 21.0 / 17.0
Blocks 6.3 / 4.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 51.2 48.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.6 / 72.1 73.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 47.9 / 43.5 44.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.7 / 9.0 9.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 15.1 / 12.9 24.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAL
HOU
LAL
ML
61% 69-44
61% 68-43
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
ATS
62% 70-43
61% 67-43-1
59% 51-35
54% 49-42
TTL
51% 58-55
61% 66-43-2
100% 86-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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