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WICHITA STATE

SHOCKERSWICH

22-10  |  Road

55
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 3:15 PM ET
Legacy Arena at BJCC
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

24-8  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
SHOCKERS
0%
📊
BULLS
100%
SHOCKERS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ShockersWICH (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Shockers Cover

42.1%

Bulls Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

WICH By 1-7 points

26.8%

WICH By 8-14 points

18.6%

USF By 1-7 points

23.0%

USF By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
WICHITA STATE
74
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
72
WICHITA STATE
75
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Shockers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 WICH @ USF 55 - 70
Feb 11, 2026 USF @ WICH 66 - 58
Jan 18, 2026 WICH @ USF 86 - 85
Mar 13, 2025 USF @ WICH 68 - 73
Feb 9, 2025 WICH @ USF 75 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.0% more
Wichita State: 3.5 vs South Florida: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5) +3.0%
Wichita State: 78.3% vs South Florida: 75.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Wichita State: 37.4% vs South Florida: 35.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Wichita State: 46.0% vs South Florida: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WICH Score 76.0 55
USF Score 74.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.4 27.0 / 21.0
Assists 18.1 / 12.5 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.5 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.0 38.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 78.3 78.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 42.5 / 42.3 40.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.3 / 6.1 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 9.6 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WICH
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WICH Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +3.3
USF
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WICH
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -1.0
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
WICH
USF
WICH
ML
61% 20-13
61% 22-14
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
ATS
61% 20-13
64% 23-13
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
TTL
52% 17-16
69% 25-11
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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