Home / NBA Projections NBA / Mavericks @ Cavaliers DAL @ CLE

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

22-45  |  Road

130
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 3:30 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

41-26  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
MAVERICKS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cleveland)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

18.4%

Cavaliers Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

DAL By 1-7 points

12.2%

DAL By 8-14 points

4.0%

CLE By 1-7 points

24.3%

CLE By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
109
DALLAS
118
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
107
DALLAS
110
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (+15) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.0 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u236.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 DAL @ CLE 130 - 120
Mar 13, 2026 CLE @ DAL 138 - 105
Feb 2, 2025 DAL @ CLE 101 - 144
Jan 3, 2025 CLE @ DAL 134 - 122
Feb 27, 2024 DAL @ CLE 119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +34.8% more
Cleveland: 7.3 vs Dallas: 5.4
Blocks (L5) +12.8% more
Cleveland: 5.3 vs Dallas: 4.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Cleveland: 40.2% vs Dallas: 31.2%
Assists (L5) +8.9% more
Cleveland: 27.8 vs Dallas: 25.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 109.0 130
CLE Score 118.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 31.2 39.0 / 50.0
Assists 27.8 / 25.5 32.0 / 35.0
Blocks 5.3 / 4.7 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 44.9 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 70.4 / 80.3 67.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 42.5 / 46.5 38.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.4 5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 17.4 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DAL
CLE
DAL
ML
60% 69-46
62% 63-39
56% 55-44
54% 44-37
ATS
67% 75-37-3
67% 68-34
56% 55-44
54% 44-37
TTL
59% 68-47
59% 60-41-1
100% 99-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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