DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
23-10 | Road
62
VCU
RAMSVCU
26-7 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
RAMS
0%
FLYERS
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (VCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VCU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)
DAY By 1-7 points
16.9%
DAY By 8-14 points
6.8%
VCU By 1-7 points
26.8%
VCU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
64
DAYTON
VCU
70
VCU
Simulated Score
Dayton
68
DAYTON
VCU
74
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rams
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rams
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rams (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Rams (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
DAY @ VCU
62 - 70
Mar 6, 2026
VCU @ DAY
68 - 62
Feb 6, 2026
DAY @ VCU
73 - 99
Mar 7, 2025
DAY @ VCU
79 - 76
Feb 7, 2025
VCU @ DAY
73 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+9.0% more
VCU: 3.3
vs
Dayton: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.5%
VCU: 45.8%
vs
Dayton: 40.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
VCU: 37.0%
vs
Dayton: 35.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+21.2% more
Dayton: 11.0
vs
VCU: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
64.0
62
VCU Score
70.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 35.0
46.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.1 / 13.4
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.0
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 40.3
40.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.2 / 76.4
68.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 33.2
34.0 / 39.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.1
9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.0
5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
DAY
VCU
DAY
ML
72%
26-10
65%
24-13
67%
22-11
64%
23-13
ATS
81%
29-7
68%
25-12
67%
22-11
64%
23-13
TTL
58%
21-15
57%
21-16
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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