VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
26-7 | Road
75
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
25-8 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
100%
RAZORBACKS
0%
COMMODORES
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARK -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
VAN By 1-7 points
18.6%
VAN By 8-14 points
8.0%
ARK By 1-7 points
27.2%
ARK By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
75
VANDERBILT
Arkansas
80
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
70
VANDERBILT
Arkansas
78
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u164.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
VAN @ ARK
75 - 86
Jan 20, 2026
VAN @ ARK
68 - 93
Mar 4, 2025
ARK @ VAN
90 - 77
Mar 13, 2024
VAN @ ARK
85 - 90
Feb 27, 2024
VAN @ ARK
85 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+27.8% more
Arkansas: 38.5
vs
Vanderbilt: 30.1
Blocks (L5)
+24.0% more
Arkansas: 4.1
vs
Vanderbilt: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+10.7% more
Arkansas: 7.9
vs
Vanderbilt: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.8%
Vanderbilt: 85.4%
vs
Arkansas: 74.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
75.0
75
ARK Score
80.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 38.0
63.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.9 / 15.9
21.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.3
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 48.3
52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 85.4
73.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 30.1
36.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.1
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 8.8
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
VAN
ARK
VAN
ML
68%
25-12
69%
25-11
81%
25-6
56%
18-14
ATS
70%
26-11
78%
28-8
81%
25-6
56%
18-14
TTL
57%
21-16
58%
21-15
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
Tyrese Haliburton Set to Make Emotional Return to Iowa State as …
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
Colorado Buffaloes Playbook Left in Hotel Bar, Found by Texas Te…
Indiana Hoosiers Fans Invade Rutgers Homecoming as Hoosiers Roll…