Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Boilermakers @ Wolverines PUR @ MICH

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

26-8  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 3:30 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

31-2  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BOILERMAKERS
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
BOILERMAKERS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BoilermakersPUR (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boilermakers Cover

42.1%

Wolverines Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

PUR By 1-7 points

26.8%

PUR By 8-14 points

18.6%

MICH By 1-7 points

23.0%

MICH By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
79
PURDUE
77
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
75
PURDUE
68
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wolverines (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 PUR @ MICH 80 - 72
Feb 17, 2026 MICH @ PUR 91 - 80
Mar 14, 2025 PUR @ MICH 68 - 86
Feb 11, 2025 PUR @ MICH 73 - 75
Jan 24, 2025 MICH @ PUR 64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.4% more
Purdue: 20.9 vs Michigan: 14.8
Blocks (L5) +156.6% more
Michigan: 6.4 vs Purdue: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +35.1% more
Michigan: 12.1 vs Purdue: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +6.4%
Michigan: 81.6% vs Purdue: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 79.0 80
MICH Score 77.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.2 / 36.6 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.8 / 20.9 15.0 / 21.0
Blocks 6.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 47.5 47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 75.1 83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 35.1 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.0 / 4.9 2.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.0 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
MICH Advantage
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
PUR
MICH
PUR
ML
78% 31-9
67% 26-13
63% 24-14
66% 25-13
ATS
78% 31-9
64% 25-14
63% 24-14
66% 25-13
TTL
57% 23-17
51% 20-19
100% 38-0
100% 38-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 12 hours ago
Jason Kidd in Advanced Talks to Join ESPN's NBA Countdown as Ana…
yahoo 2 days, 20 hours ago
Michigan State's Exhibition Win Reveals Key Player Development a…
yahoo 5 days, 19 hours ago
Colts 2026-27 Tickets: Schedule, Best Matchups, Prices & Lucas O…
sportingnews 1 week, 2 days ago
NBA Training Camp Buzz: Undrafted Gems Sign Deals with Thunder, …
si 1 week, 5 days ago