Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Bulldogs PENN @ YALE

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

17-11  |  Road

88
FINAL
Sun, Mar 15 • 12:00 PM ET
Newman Arena
View Odds Details →

YALE

BULLDOGSYALE

24-5  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
QUAKERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
PENNSYLVANIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Pennsylvania)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsYALE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

95.5%

Bulldogs Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PENN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PENN)

PENN By 1-7 points

12.2%

PENN By 8-14 points

23.0%

YALE By 1-7 points

3.3%

YALE By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
81
PENNSYLVANIA
64
YALE
Simulated Score
70
PENNSYLVANIA
75
YALE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Quakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Quakers (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 PENN @ YALE 88 - 84
Feb 21, 2026 PENN @ YALE 70 - 74
Jan 24, 2026 YALE @ PENN 77 - 60
Feb 14, 2025 PENN @ YALE 71 - 72
Feb 1, 2025 YALE @ PENN 90 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.4% more
Pennsylvania: 10.0 vs Yale: 5.7
Turnovers (L5) +10.5% more
Pennsylvania: 9.7 vs Yale: 8.7
Blocks (L5) +74.2% more
Yale: 4.1 vs Pennsylvania: 2.4
Assists (L5) +29.3% more
Yale: 16.5 vs Pennsylvania: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 81.0 88
YALE Score 64.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 36.5 38.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.5 / 12.7 23.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 41.7 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 65.8 76.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 35.4 41.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.7 / 10.0 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 9.7 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
YALE Advantage
24-7-0 (77.4%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
YALE Advantage
12-16-1 (42.9%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
YALE
PENN
YALE
PENN
ML
48% 15-16
53% 16-14
58% 18-13
76% 22-7
ATS
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
58% 18-13
76% 22-7
TTL
61% 19-12
70% 21-9
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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