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SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

22-10  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 6:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

27-6  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
AZTECS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

46.0%

Aggies Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

USU By 1-7 points

24.3%

USU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SAN DIEGO STATE
74
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
61
SAN DIEGO STATE
65
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 SDSU @ USU 62 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 USU @ SDSU 72 - 89
Jan 31, 2026 SDSU @ USU 66 - 71
Feb 22, 2025 SDSU @ USU 71 - 79
Dec 28, 2024 USU @ SDSU 67 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +37.5% more
San Diego State: 4.0 vs Utah State: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +10.7% more
San Diego State: 37.2 vs Utah State: 33.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.6% more
San Diego State: 11.7 vs Utah State: 10.7
Assists (L5) +23.4% more
Utah State: 16.2 vs San Diego State: 13.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 75.0 62
USU Score 74.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 26.2 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.2 / 13.2 18.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.0 3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 46.4 46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 64.8 54.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 37.2 36.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.8 / 7.7 9.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.7 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
SDSU
USU
SDSU
ML
49% 17-18
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
72% 23-9
ATS
74% 26-9
69% 22-10
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
TTL
51% 18-17
75% 24-8
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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