VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
29-4 | Road
70
DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
31-2 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
UVA By 1-7 points
13.7%
UVA By 8-14 points
4.8%
DUKE By 1-7 points
25.3%
DUKE By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
66
VIRGINIA
Duke
74
DUKE
Simulated Score
Virginia
62
VIRGINIA
Duke
69
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u140.5
Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
UVA @ DUKE
70 - 74
Feb 28, 2026
UVA @ DUKE
51 - 77
Feb 17, 2025
DUKE @ UVA
80 - 62
Mar 2, 2024
UVA @ DUKE
48 - 73
Mar 11, 2023
DUKE @ UVA
59 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Duke: 42.4
vs
Virginia: 36.8
Blocks (L5)
+63.2% more
Virginia: 7.2
vs
Duke: 2.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.5%
Virginia: 84.1%
vs
Duke: 71.5%
Assists (L5)
+12.3% more
Virginia: 16.6
vs
Duke: 14.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
66.0
70
DUKE Score
74.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 39.8
32.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.6 / 16.6
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.6 / 7.2
1.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.7
38.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 84.1
80.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
42.4 / 36.8
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.9
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.4
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
DUKE
Advantage
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
UVA
DUKE
UVA
ML
71%
27-11
67%
24-12
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
ATS
79%
30-8
75%
27-9
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
TTL
47%
18-20
53%
19-17
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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