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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

36-23-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

STARSDAL

41-14-10  |  Home

3
Goaltending
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
@
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
John Gibson None-None 2.90 0.875 --
Jake Oettinger None-None 1.94 0.917 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.90 GAA Ldr 1.94
0.875 Save % Ldr 0.917
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
STARS
0%
RED WINGS --
STARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Dallas)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 StarsDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

30.9%

Stars Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DET By 1 goal

12.1%

DET By 2-3 goals

9.3%

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DETROIT
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stars Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stars (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Stars (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 DET @ DAL 2 - 3
Dec 23, 2025 DAL @ DET 3 - 4
Apr 14, 2025 DAL @ DET 4 - 6
Jan 19, 2025 DET @ DAL 1 - 4
Jan 23, 2024 DAL @ DET 5 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +45.7% more
Dallas: 17.4 vs Detroit: 12.0
Power Play % (L5) +21.0%
Dallas: 32.0% vs Detroit: 11.0%
Hits (L5) +14.5% more
Dallas: 19.9 vs Detroit: 17.4
Faceoff % (L5) +2.6%
Dallas: 54.6% vs Detroit: 52.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.0 2
DAL Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
DET
DAL
DET
ML
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 3-0
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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