DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
41-26 | Road
125
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
41-25 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
LAKERS
100%
NUGGETS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
26.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
24.3%
LAL By 1-7 points
16.9%
LAL By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
117
DENVER
Los Angeles
111
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Denver
112
DENVER
Los Angeles
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u245.0
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u245.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
DEN @ LAL
125 - 127
Mar 5, 2026
LAL @ DEN
113 - 120
Jan 20, 2026
LAL @ DEN
115 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DEN @ LAL
108 - 120
Mar 14, 2025
LAL @ DEN
126 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Denver: 81.9%
vs
Los Angeles: 75.7%
Blocks (L5)
+16.8% more
Los Angeles: 3.8
vs
Denver: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+15.7% more
Los Angeles: 8.5
vs
Denver: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
117.0
125
LAL Score
111.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 38.5
33.0 / 39.0
Assists
28.4 / 29.4
31.0 / 33.0
Blocks
3.8 / 3.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.8 / 50.0
52.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 81.9
65.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 45.0
46.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.3
10.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 11.4
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
DEN
LAL
DEN
ML
61%
68-43
54%
57-48
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
ATS
61%
67-43-1
63%
65-38-2
54%
49-42
55%
47-39
TTL
61%
66-43-2
54%
56-48-1
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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