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ORLANDO

MAGICORL

37-28  |  Road

121
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Kaseya Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HEATMIA

38-29  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
HEAT
0%
MAGIC --
HEAT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 HeatMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

46.0%

Heat Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

ORL By 1-7 points

24.3%

ORL By 8-14 points

13.7%

MIA By 1-7 points

26.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
121
ORLANDO
122
MIAMI
Simulated Score
103
ORLANDO
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Heat Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Heat Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Heat (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Heat (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o236.5 Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 ORL @ MIA 121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026 ORL @ MIA 133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025 MIA @ ORL 108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025 MIA @ ORL 105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025 MIA @ ORL 121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.5% more
Miami: 12.8 vs Orlando: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5) +3.9%
Miami: 82.5% vs Orlando: 78.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Orlando: 49.2% vs Miami: 46.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Orlando: 37.8% vs Miami: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 121.0 121
MIA Score 122.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 37.8 32.0 / 31.0
Assists 28.7 / 29.4 25.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.1 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 49.2 47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 78.7 82.0 / 92.0
Rebounding 49.3 / 48.1 32.0 / 49.0
Steals 8.9 / 9.3 13.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 11.8 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ORL
MIA
ORL
ML
48% 46-50
61% 65-42
59% 48-34
56% 51-40
ATS
51% 49-47
64% 68-38-1
59% 48-34
56% 51-40
TTL
59% 57-39
57% 61-46
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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