Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Spurs CHA @ SA

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

34-33  |  Road

102
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 3:30 PM ET
Frost Bank Center
View Odds Details →

SAN ANTONIO

SPURSSA

48-18  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
SPURS
0%
HORNETS --
SPURS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Antonio)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 SpursSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

46.0%

Spurs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)

CHA By 1-7 points

24.3%

CHA By 8-14 points

13.7%

SA By 1-7 points

26.2%

SA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112
CHARLOTTE
113
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
110
CHARLOTTE
115
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spurs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spurs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spurs (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Spurs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u231.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CHA @ SA 102 - 115
Jan 31, 2026 SA @ CHA 106 - 111
Mar 14, 2025 CHA @ SA 145 - 134
Feb 7, 2025 SA @ CHA 116 - 117
Jan 19, 2024 SA @ CHA 120 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +30.2% more
San Antonio: 5.0 vs Charlotte: 3.9
Assists (L5) +22.4% more
San Antonio: 31.6 vs Charlotte: 25.8
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
San Antonio: 49.7% vs Charlotte: 43.7%
Steals (L5) +24.0% more
Charlotte: 8.0 vs San Antonio: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 112.0 102
SA Score 113.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.8 / 40.4 33.0 / 33.0
Assists 31.6 / 25.8 29.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.0 / 3.9 6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 43.7 47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 84.5 86.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 45.4 54.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 8.0 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 14.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
SA Advantage
75-31-0 (70.8%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
SA
60-44-2 (57.7%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
CHA
SA
CHA
ML
60% 111-73
61% 60-39
58% 61-44
48% 40-44
ATS
58% 107-76-1
60% 59-40
58% 61-44
48% 40-44
TTL
74% 134-47-3
58% 57-42
100% 105-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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