VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
25-7 | Road
91
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
26-6 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
0%
GATORS
100%
COMMODORES
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
VAN By 1-7 points
24.3%
VAN By 8-14 points
26.8%
FLA By 1-7 points
12.2%
FLA By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Vanderbilt
80
VANDERBILT
Florida
71
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Vanderbilt
65
VANDERBILT
Florida
75
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Commodores
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Commodores (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
VAN @ FLA
91 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
FLA @ VAN
98 - 94
Feb 4, 2025
VAN @ FLA
75 - 86
Mar 9, 2024
FLA @ VAN
78 - 79
Feb 24, 2024
VAN @ FLA
64 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.4%
Vanderbilt: 82.6%
vs
Florida: 70.1%
Blocks (L5)
+58.7% more
Florida: 5.6
vs
Vanderbilt: 3.5
Turnovers (L5)
+37.6% more
Florida: 12.6
vs
Vanderbilt: 9.2
Rebounding (L5)
+37.4% more
Florida: 46.3
vs
Vanderbilt: 33.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAN Score
80.0
91
FLA Score
71.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 33.1
29.0 / 48.0
Assists
17.0 / 13.4
13.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.5
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 45.0
46.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 82.6
74.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 33.7
38.0 / 23.0
Steals
7.4 / 6.7
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 9.2
14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
FLA
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
VAN
FLA
VAN
ML
77%
27-8
69%
25-11
63%
22-13
56%
18-14
ATS
69%
24-11
78%
28-8
63%
22-13
56%
18-14
TTL
63%
22-13
58%
21-15
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
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