Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Flyers @ Billikens DAY @ SLU

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

22-10  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 1:00 PM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

SAINT LOUIS

BILLIKENSSLU

28-4  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
BILLIKENS
0%
FLYERS --
BILLIKENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAINT LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Saint Louis)
FlyersDAY (-3.5) 0 BillikensSLU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

46.0%

Billikens Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SLU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SLU)

DAY By 1-7 points

24.3%

DAY By 8-14 points

13.7%

SLU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SLU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
DAYTON
76
SAINT LOUIS
Simulated Score
72
DAYTON
68
SAINT LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Billikens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Billikens (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Flyers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 DAY @ SLU 70 - 69
Feb 24, 2026 SLU @ DAY 62 - 77
Jan 30, 2026 DAY @ SLU 71 - 102
Mar 4, 2025 SLU @ DAY 67 - 75
Jan 31, 2025 DAY @ SLU 71 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.9% more
Saint Louis: 15.8 vs Dayton: 13.6
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Saint Louis: 47.7% vs Dayton: 43.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Saint Louis: 76.2% vs Dayton: 73.0%
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
Dayton: 12.5 vs Saint Louis: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAY Score 75.0 70
SLU Score 76.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 36.0 36.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.8 / 13.6 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.5 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 43.0 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 73.0 88.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 33.3 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.2 4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 12.5 18.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SLU Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
SLU Advantage
19-13-2 (59.4%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
SLU
18-16-0
O: 52.9% / U: 47.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SLU
DAY
SLU
DAY
ML
70% 23-10
65% 24-13
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
ATS
73% 24-9
68% 25-12
68% 21-10
64% 23-13
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 21-16
100% 31-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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