WISCONSIN
BADGERSWIS
24-9 | Road
65
MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
30-2 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
WOLVERINES
0%
BADGERS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MICH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)
WIS By 1-7 points
16.9%
WIS By 8-14 points
6.8%
MICH By 1-7 points
26.8%
MICH By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Wisconsin
75
WISCONSIN
Michigan
81
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Wisconsin
68
WISCONSIN
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolverines (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
WIS @ MICH
65 - 68
Jan 10, 2026
WIS @ MICH
91 - 88
Mar 16, 2025
WIS @ MICH
53 - 59
Dec 3, 2024
MICH @ WIS
67 - 64
Feb 7, 2024
WIS @ MICH
68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+128.2% more
Michigan: 5.7
vs
Wisconsin: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+64.2% more
Michigan: 11.1
vs
Wisconsin: 6.8
Rebounding (L5)
+8.1% more
Michigan: 35.3
vs
Wisconsin: 32.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Michigan: 48.6%
vs
Wisconsin: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WIS Score
75.0
65
MICH Score
81.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 36.1
32.0 / 42.0
Assists
15.7 / 17.3
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.7 / 2.5
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 45.7
43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 88.1
83.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 32.7
40.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.0 / 5.2
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 6.8
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: +1.1
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
22-13-0
O: 62.9% / U: 37.1%
Total +/-: +3.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
WIS
MICH
WIS
ML
78%
31-9
60%
21-14
63%
24-14
69%
24-11
ATS
78%
31-9
51%
18-17
63%
24-14
69%
24-11
TTL
57%
23-17
57%
20-15
100%
38-0
100%
35-0
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