VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
22-11 | Road
59
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
23-8 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
CATAMOUNTS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UVM By 1-7 points
8.0%
UVM By 8-14 points
2.2%
UMBC By 1-7 points
20.1%
UMBC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont
68
VERMONT
UMBC
80
UMBC
Simulated Score
Vermont
72
VERMONT
UMBC
60
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o136.5
Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
u136.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
59 - 74
Feb 19, 2026
UVM @ UMBC
62 - 75
Jan 29, 2026
UMBC @ UVM
55 - 64
Mar 1, 2025
UVM @ UMBC
79 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
UMBC @ UVM
80 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+16.1% more
UMBC: 12.7
vs
Vermont: 10.9
Steals (L5)
+14.9% more
UMBC: 7.4
vs
Vermont: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.1%
UMBC: 79.7%
vs
Vermont: 66.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+12.3% more
UMBC: 37.1
vs
Vermont: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVM Score
68.0
59
UMBC Score
80.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 34.5
38.0 / 19.0
Assists
12.7 / 10.9
6.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 46.1
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
79.7 / 66.5
85.0 / 40.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 33.0
32.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.4 / 6.4
3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.8 / 9.0
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVM
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
UVM
UMBC
UVM
ML
58%
18-13
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
ATS
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
TTL
39%
12-19
47%
16-18
100%
31-0
100%
34-0