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CAROLINA

HURRICANESCAR

41-18-6  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

40-20-4  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Sean Walker
GOALTENDER

Sean Walker

#26 | Defense
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Sean Walker None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 3.06 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.06
-- Save % 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
HURRICANES --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
HurricanesCAR (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hurricanes Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CAR By 1 goal

12.1%

CAR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CAROLINA
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
CAROLINA
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 CAR @ TB 4 - 2
Feb 26, 2026 TB @ CAR 4 - 5
Dec 20, 2025 CAR @ TB 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2025 CAR @ TB 5 - 6
Sep 22, 2025 TB @ CAR 2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +40.2% more
Tampa Bay: 26.9 vs Carolina: 19.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +18.6% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9 vs Carolina: 10.9
Power Play % (L5) +11.0%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Carolina: 20.5%
Takeaways (L5) +62.2% more
Carolina: 6.8 vs Tampa Bay: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 2.0 4
TB Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
49%MONEY51%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CAR
TB
CAR
ML
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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