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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

32-18-15  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

34-26-6  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Brandon Saad
GOALTENDER

Brandon Saad

#20 | F
@
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Brandon Saad 19-9 -- -- --
Karel Vejmelka None-None 4.17 0.826 --
19-9 W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.17
-- Save % 0.826
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
MAMMOTH
100%
PENGUINS --
MAMMOTH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 MammothUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

84.1%

Mammoth Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

17.5%

PIT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

UTA By 1 goal

6.6%

UTA By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PITTSBURGH
1
UTAH
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
3
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mammoth Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Mammoth (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 PIT @ UTA 4 - 3
Dec 14, 2025 UTA @ PIT 5 - 4
Jan 29, 2025 PIT @ UTA 3 - 2
Nov 23, 2024 UTA @ PIT 6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.5% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs Utah: 22.4
Hits (L5) +38.0% more
Utah: 23.2 vs Pittsburgh: 16.8
Power Play % (L5) +21.9%
Utah: 24.4% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.3% more
Utah: 12.4 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 3.0 4
UTA Score 1.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
9%MONEY91%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
PIT
UTA
PIT
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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