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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

31-26-6  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Mar 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

36-18-10  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
@
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 2.00 0.926 --
Jakub Dobes None-None 3.13 0.857 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.13
0.926 Ldr Save % 0.857
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
SHARKS --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
SharksSJ (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN JOSE
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 14, 2026 SJ @ MTL 4 - 2
Mar 3, 2026 MTL @ SJ 5 - 7
Feb 27, 2025 SJ @ MTL 3 - 4
Feb 4, 2025 MTL @ SJ 4 - 3
Jan 11, 2024 SJ @ MTL 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +22.2%
Montreal: 31.0% vs San Jose: 8.8%
Takeaways (L5) +13.5% more
Montreal: 5.0 vs San Jose: 4.4
Faceoff % (L5) +11.9%
Montreal: 56.1% vs San Jose: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 3.0 4
MTL Score 4.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
SJ
MTL
SJ
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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