Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Aztecs UNM @ SDSU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

23-9  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 11:59 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

21-10  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
LOBOS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego State)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

46.0%

Aztecs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

UNM By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

13.7%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
NEW MEXICO
80
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO
76
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 62 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 SDSU @ UNM 76 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 79 - 83
Feb 25, 2025 UNM @ SDSU 65 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 SDSU @ UNM 48 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +134.2% more
San Diego State: 4.5 vs New Mexico: 1.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.9% more
San Diego State: 11.0 vs New Mexico: 10.0
Assists (L5) +34.9% more
New Mexico: 18.1 vs San Diego State: 11.8
Steals (L5) +24.3% more
New Mexico: 8.7 vs San Diego State: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 79.0 62
SDSU Score 80.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.3 / 37.3 24.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.8 / 18.1 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.5 / 1.9 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 49.9 41.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 72.9 62.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 35.6 43.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.7 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.0 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
UNM
SDSU
UNM
ML
62% 20-12
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
ATS
69% 22-10
57% 21-16
72% 23-9
74% 25-9
TTL
75% 24-8
41% 15-22
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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