Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Golden Hurricane UNT @ TLSA

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

19-13  |  Road

84
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Legacy Arena at BJCC
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

25-6  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
100%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
MEAN GREEN --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tulsa)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

46.0%

Golden Hurricane Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

UNT By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNT By 8-14 points

13.7%

TLSA By 1-7 points

26.2%

TLSA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
NORTH TEXAS
76
TULSA
Simulated Score
65
NORTH TEXAS
62
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Hurricane (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Mean Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 84 - 90
Jan 28, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 66 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 TLSA @ UNT 67 - 72
Mar 14, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 59 - 77
Feb 19, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 44 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.4% more
Tulsa: 16.4 vs North Texas: 12.4
Free Throw % (L5) +13.0%
Tulsa: 75.7% vs North Texas: 62.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.8%
Tulsa: 39.2% vs North Texas: 28.4%
Turnovers (L5) +10.6% more
Tulsa: 8.2 vs North Texas: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 75.0 84
TLSA Score 76.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 28.4 33.0 / 25.0
Assists 16.4 / 12.4 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 41.9 35.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 62.7 82.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 35.7 48.0 / 50.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.6 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 7.4 18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UNT
TLSA
UNT
ML
66% 25-13
70% 23-10
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
ATS
74% 28-10
52% 17-16
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
TTL
58% 22-16
67% 22-11
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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