Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Wolverines UTA @ UVU

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

18-13  |  Road

65
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 9:00 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

UTAH VALLEY

WOLVERINESUVU

24-7  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
MAVERICKS --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WolverinesUVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

95.5%

Wolverines Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

12.2%

UTA By 8-14 points

23.0%

UVU By 1-7 points

3.3%

UVU By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
83
UT ARLINGTON
66
UTAH VALLEY
Simulated Score
68
UT ARLINGTON
72
UTAH VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u136.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UTA @ UVU 65 - 67
Feb 21, 2026 UVU @ UTA 66 - 54
Feb 7, 2026 UTA @ UVU 60 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UTA @ UVU 74 - 86
Feb 6, 2025 UTA @ UVU 73 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
UT Arlington: 40.5 vs Utah Valley: 35.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
UT Arlington: 76.5% vs Utah Valley: 68.9%
Assists (L5) +146.1% more
Utah Valley: 19.2 vs UT Arlington: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +29.7% more
Utah Valley: 4.6 vs UT Arlington: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 83.0 65
UVU Score 66.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 29.0 35.0 / 33.0
Assists 19.2 / 7.8 10.0 / 6.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.5 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 37.6 48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 76.5 62.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 40.5 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.9 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 12.7 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
UVU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
UVU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVU
UTA
UVU
UTA
ML
56% 18-14
50% 16-16
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
53% 17-15
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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