DAVIDSON
WILDCATSDAV
20-12 | Road
58
SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
21-10 | Home
70
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
HAWKS
0%
WILDCATS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JOES -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
DAV By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAV By 8-14 points
10.7%
JOES By 1-7 points
27.2%
JOES By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Davidson
73
DAVIDSON
Saint Joseph's
76
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Simulated Score
Davidson
72
DAVIDSON
Saint Joseph's
75
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
DAV @ JOES
58 - 70
Mar 4, 2026
JOES @ DAV
70 - 67
Jan 3, 2026
DAV @ JOES
62 - 56
Jan 21, 2025
JOES @ DAV
78 - 61
Mar 9, 2024
DAV @ JOES
71 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.8% more
Saint Joseph's: 10.5
vs
Davidson: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+19.4% more
Saint Joseph's: 15.3
vs
Davidson: 12.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.2%
Saint Joseph's: 70.7%
vs
Davidson: 59.5%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.4% more
Saint Joseph's: 38.4
vs
Davidson: 35.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAV Score
73.0
58
JOES Score
76.0
70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 28.8
38.0 / 28.0
Assists
15.3 / 12.8
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.6 / 5.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 42.3
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.7 / 59.5
85.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 35.1
35.0 / 28.0
Steals
4.1 / 6.5
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 8.8
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAV
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAV
13-17-2
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.6
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JOES
DAV
JOES
DAV
ML
51%
18-17
64%
21-12
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
ATS
60%
21-14
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
58%
19-14
TTL
54%
19-16
52%
17-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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