Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Crimson Tide MISS @ ALA

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

14-19  |  Road

80
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

23-8  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
REBELS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Alabama)
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

46.0%

Crimson Tide Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

MISS By 1-7 points

24.3%

MISS By 8-14 points

13.7%

ALA By 1-7 points

26.2%

ALA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
70
OLE MISS
71
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
75
OLE MISS
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u165.5 Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 MISS @ ALA 80 - 79
Feb 11, 2026 ALA @ MISS 93 - 74
Jan 14, 2025 MISS @ ALA 74 - 64
Feb 28, 2024 ALA @ MISS 103 - 88
Jan 3, 2023 MISS @ ALA 62 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.6% more
Alabama: 13.5 vs Ole Miss: 12.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.0% more
Alabama: 37.9 vs Ole Miss: 34.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Alabama: 34.1% vs Ole Miss: 28.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Alabama: 78.0% vs Ole Miss: 75.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 70.0 80
ALA Score 71.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 28.8 31.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.5 / 12.0 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 45.6 41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 75.9 72.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 34.7 36.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.6 / 8.9 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 10.5 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
ALA Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
MISS
ALA
MISS
ML
63% 22-13
48% 16-17
58% 19-14
52% 17-16
ATS
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
52% 17-16
TTL
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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