CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
40-26 | Road
138
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
22-44 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
CLE By 1-7 points
12.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
4.0%
DAL By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
109
CLEVELAND
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+13.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.0
Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u237.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
DAL @ CLE
130 - 120
Mar 13, 2026
CLE @ DAL
138 - 105
Feb 2, 2025
DAL @ CLE
101 - 144
Jan 3, 2025
CLE @ DAL
134 - 122
Feb 27, 2024
DAL @ CLE
119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+52.0% more
Dallas: 16.6
vs
Cleveland: 10.9
Steals (L5)
+23.3% more
Dallas: 6.1
vs
Cleveland: 5.0
Rebounding (L5)
+20.4% more
Dallas: 49.7
vs
Cleveland: 41.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Dallas: 78.9%
vs
Cleveland: 74.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
109.0
138
DAL Score
118.0
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.3 / 36.8
27.0 / 47.0
Assists
24.8 / 25.7
27.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.5 / 5.9
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 46.2
44.0 / 62.0
Free Throw %
78.9 / 74.6
83.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
49.7 / 41.3
40.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.0
4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 10.9
19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CLE
DAL
CLE
ML
62%
63-39
60%
69-46
54%
44-37
56%
55-44
ATS
67%
68-34
67%
75-37-3
54%
44-37
56%
55-44
TTL
59%
60-41-1
59%
68-47
100%
81-0
100%
99-0
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