Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Rockets NO @ HOU

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

22-45  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

40-25  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
PELICANS --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Houston)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

9.7%

Rockets Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

NO By 1-7 points

6.8%

NO By 8-14 points

1.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

18.6%

HOU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
113
NEW ORLEANS
126
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
115
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 HOU @ NO 134 - 102
Mar 13, 2026 NO @ HOU 105 - 107
Jan 18, 2026 NO @ HOU 110 - 119
Dec 18, 2025 HOU @ NO 128 - 133
Oct 14, 2025 HOU @ NO 130 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Houston: 16.7 vs New Orleans: 14.0
Steals (L5) +20.2% more
New Orleans: 9.4 vs Houston: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
New Orleans: 80.1% vs Houston: 65.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
New Orleans: 37.9% vs Houston: 27.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 113.0 105
HOU Score 126.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 37.9 34.0 / 41.0
Assists 23.9 / 25.4 25.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.7 8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 49.3 43.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 80.1 76.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 46.3 52.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.5 / 9.4 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 14.0 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
NO
HOU
NO
ML
61% 69-44
62% 98-61
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
ATS
62% 70-43
68% 107-51-1
59% 51-35
58% 48-35
TTL
51% 58-55
75% 119-40
100% 86-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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