PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
39-27 | Road
115
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
36-29 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
SUNS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
253.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
24.3%
PHX By 8-14 points
26.8%
TOR By 1-7 points
12.2%
TOR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
131
PHOENIX
Toronto
122
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
109
PHOENIX
Toronto
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.5
Win
Proj Total: 253.0
D
Sim
u220.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
TOR @ PHX
98 - 120
Mar 13, 2026
PHX @ TOR
115 - 122
Mar 17, 2025
TOR @ PHX
89 - 129
Feb 23, 2025
PHX @ TOR
109 - 127
Mar 7, 2024
TOR @ PHX
113 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.3% more
Phoenix: 12.9
vs
Toronto: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Phoenix: 39.9%
vs
Toronto: 31.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Phoenix: 48.7%
vs
Toronto: 45.4%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.1%
Phoenix: 79.8%
vs
Toronto: 76.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
131.0
115
TOR Score
122.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 39.9
52.0 / 43.0
Assists
24.4 / 25.3
25.0 / 20.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.4
3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 48.7
53.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 79.8
80.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 41.2
44.0 / 34.0
Steals
10.4 / 8.3
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 12.9
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHX
TOR
PHX
ML
55%
57-47
57%
60-45
55%
48-39
51%
45-43
ATS
61%
62-40-2
58%
59-43-3
55%
48-39
51%
45-43
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
61-42-2
100%
87-0
100%
88-0
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