NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
22-11 | Road
66
UTAH STATE
AGGIESUSU
26-6 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
WOLF PACK
0%
AGGIES
100%
WOLF PACK
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)
NEV By 1-7 points
27.2%
NEV By 8-14 points
20.1%
USU By 1-7 points
21.6%
USU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Nevada
77
NEVADA
Utah State
74
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
Nevada
72
NEVADA
Utah State
75
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolf Pack
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
NEV @ USU
66 - 79
Feb 21, 2026
USU @ NEV
77 - 80
Jan 14, 2026
NEV @ USU
62 - 71
Jan 22, 2025
NEV @ USU
69 - 90
Dec 31, 2024
USU @ NEV
69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.9% more
Nevada: 3.9
vs
Utah State: 2.2
Rebounding (L5)
+15.8% more
Nevada: 36.7
vs
Utah State: 30.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Nevada: 76.6%
vs
Utah State: 69.4%
Assists (L5)
+36.3% more
Utah State: 16.9
vs
Nevada: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NEV Score
77.0
66
USU Score
74.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 32.6
21.0 / 26.0
Assists
16.9 / 12.4
15.0 / 17.0
Blocks
2.2 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 46.7
45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
69.4 / 76.6
77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
30.9 / 36.7
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.3
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.2
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
USU
Advantage
29-7-0
(80.6%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
USU
16-19-0
(45.7%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
NEV
USU
NEV
ML
49%
17-18
62%
23-14
66%
21-11
73%
27-10
ATS
74%
26-9
73%
27-10
67%
22-11
73%
27-10
TTL
51%
18-17
49%
18-19
100%
33-0
100%
37-0
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