MIAMI
HURRICANESMIA
25-7 | Road
62
VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
28-4 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
HURRICANES
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
HURRICANES
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Virginia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)
MIA By 1-7 points
16.9%
MIA By 8-14 points
6.8%
UVA By 1-7 points
26.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
76
MIAMI
Virginia
82
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
Miami
65
MIAMI
Virginia
68
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MIA @ UVA
62 - 84
Feb 21, 2026
MIA @ UVA
83 - 86
Jan 29, 2025
UVA @ MIA
82 - 71
Feb 5, 2024
MIA @ UVA
38 - 60
Dec 20, 2022
UVA @ MIA
64 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.9% more
Virginia: 7.8
vs
Miami: 4.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Virginia: 80.1%
vs
Miami: 70.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+9.3% more
Virginia: 36.1
vs
Miami: 33.1
Steals (L5)
+20.0% more
Miami: 7.9
vs
Virginia: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
76.0
62
UVA Score
82.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 41.8
42.0 / 20.0
Assists
16.4 / 15.6
17.0 / 6.0
Blocks
7.8 / 4.5
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 49.8
53.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 70.1
92.0 / 93.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 33.1
38.0 / 26.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.9
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 10.4
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
18-15-1
(54.6%)
Margin: 10.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4%
Total +/-: +0.4
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
MIA
UVA
MIA
ML
67%
24-12
63%
22-13
72%
26-10
64%
21-12
ATS
75%
27-9
63%
22-13
72%
26-10
64%
21-12
TTL
53%
19-17
63%
22-13
100%
36-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
.jpg)
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
Miami's Bye Week Blueprint: Top Games to Scout for Week 6
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Ashton Daniels Erupts for Five Rushing Scores as Florida State C…
Florida State Crushes Virginia 38-7 as Ashton Daniels Sets Recor…