IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
27-6 | Road
80
ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
30-2 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
0%
WILDCATS
100%
CYCLONES
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Iowa State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ISU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)
ISU By 1-7 points
27.2%
ISU By 8-14 points
20.1%
ARIZ By 1-7 points
21.6%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
74
IOWA STATE
Arizona
71
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Iowa State
70
IOWA STATE
Arizona
80
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cyclones
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cyclones (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
ISU @ ARIZ
80 - 82
Mar 2, 2026
ISU @ ARIZ
57 - 73
Mar 1, 2025
ARIZ @ ISU
67 - 84
Jan 27, 2025
ISU @ ARIZ
75 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+33.9% more
Iowa State: 9.7
vs
Arizona: 6.4
Blocks (L5)
+176.0% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Iowa State: 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+16.4% more
Arizona: 41.4
vs
Iowa State: 35.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Arizona: 70.3%
vs
Iowa State: 65.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
74.0
80
ARIZ Score
71.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 36.4
50.0 / 45.0
Assists
14.4 / 15.2
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.6 / 1.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 47.4
55.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 65.8
63.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
41.4 / 35.6
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.4 / 9.7
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 9.2
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
ARIZ
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
ISU
ARIZ
ISU
ML
67%
26-13
57%
21-16
68%
23-11
76%
26-8
ATS
74%
29-10
62%
23-14
68%
23-11
76%
26-8
TTL
56%
22-17
54%
20-17
100%
34-0
100%
34-0
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