MASSACHUSETTS
MINUTEMENMASS
17-15 | Road
67
TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
18-14 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
100%
ROCKETS
0%
MINUTEMEN
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Toledo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)
MASS By 1-7 points
21.6%
MASS By 8-14 points
10.7%
TOL By 1-7 points
27.2%
TOL By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
78
MASSACHUSETTS
Toledo
81
TOLEDO
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
71
MASSACHUSETTS
Toledo
76
TOLEDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
MASS @ TOL
67 - 77
Jan 20, 2026
TOL @ MASS
82 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+59.6% more
Toledo: 8.1
vs
Massachusetts: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+57.1% more
Toledo: 2.6
vs
Massachusetts: 1.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.7%
Toledo: 42.9%
vs
Massachusetts: 29.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Toledo: 52.2%
vs
Massachusetts: 49.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
78.0
67
TOL Score
81.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.9 / 29.1
35.0 / 19.0
Assists
15.9 / 16.0
21.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.6
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
52.2 / 49.3
57.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 72.3
57.0 / 52.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 38.0
31.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.1 / 5.1
9.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 11.8
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
TOL
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
MASS
TOL
MASS
ML
48%
16-17
44%
14-18
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
ATS
48%
16-17
47%
15-17
61%
20-13
68%
21-10
TTL
64%
21-12
56%
18-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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