KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
21-12 | Road
63
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
25-6 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
GATORS
0%
WILDCATS
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
UK By 1-7 points
16.9%
UK By 8-14 points
6.8%
FLA By 1-7 points
26.8%
FLA By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
72
KENTUCKY
Florida
78
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Kentucky
74
KENTUCKY
Florida
77
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gators (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
UK @ FLA
63 - 71
Mar 7, 2026
FLA @ UK
84 - 77
Feb 14, 2026
UK @ FLA
83 - 92
Jan 4, 2025
FLA @ UK
100 - 106
Jan 31, 2024
FLA @ UK
94 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+31.9% more
Florida: 44.4
vs
Kentucky: 33.7
Assists (L5)
+18.0% more
Florida: 20.0
vs
Kentucky: 17.0
Blocks (L5)
+11.0% more
Florida: 5.4
vs
Kentucky: 4.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.1%
Florida: 40.6%
vs
Kentucky: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
72.0
63
FLA Score
78.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 31.5
15.0 / 22.0
Assists
20.0 / 17.0
11.0 / 9.0
Blocks
5.4 / 4.8
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.9 / 47.5
38.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
68.7 / 75.2
73.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
44.4 / 33.7
50.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.6 / 6.9
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 9.2
18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
FLA
Advantage
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
UK
FLA
UK
ML
77%
27-8
71%
25-10
63%
22-13
72%
23-9
ATS
69%
24-11
83%
29-6
63%
22-13
72%
23-9
TTL
63%
22-13
63%
22-13
100%
35-0
100%
32-0
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