Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buckeyes @ Wolverines OSU @ MICH

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

21-11  |  Road

67
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 12:00 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

WOLVERINESMICH

29-2  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKEYES
0%
📊
WOLVERINES
100%
BUCKEYES --
WOLVERINES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BuckeyesOSU (-3.5) 0 WolverinesMICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buckeyes Cover

15.9%

Wolverines Cover

84.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MICH +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

OSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

OSU By 8-14 points

27.2%

MICH By 1-7 points

10.7%

MICH By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
OHIO STATE
64
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
72
OHIO STATE
76
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolverines Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wolverines (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Wolverines (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 OSU @ MICH 67 - 71
Feb 8, 2026 MICH @ OSU 82 - 61
Jan 23, 2026 OSU @ MICH 62 - 74
Feb 16, 2025 MICH @ OSU 86 - 83
Mar 3, 2024 MICH @ OSU 61 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Ohio State: 55.4% vs Michigan: 50.5%
Blocks (L5) +360.5% more
Michigan: 5.5 vs Ohio State: 1.2
Rebounding (L5) +36.4% more
Michigan: 35.9 vs Ohio State: 26.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.5% more
Michigan: 12.2 vs Ohio State: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 74.0 67
MICH Score 64.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.9 / 42.1 29.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.0 / 14.6 17.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.5 / 1.2 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 55.4 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 83.8 / 75.4 75.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 26.3 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 4.0 / 4.2 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 9.9 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
MICH Advantage
37-3-0 (92.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
MICH
19-21-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 17.8 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
OSU
MICH
OSU
ML
78% 31-9
53% 18-16
63% 24-14
73% 24-9
ATS
78% 31-9
59% 20-14
63% 24-14
73% 24-9
TTL
57% 23-17
56% 19-15
100% 38-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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